فصلنامه برنامه ریزی منطقه ای
پیاپی 50 (تابستان 1402)

The price of housing as a real estate is a function of credit factors that can affect fluctuations in housing prices. The purpose of this study is to identify the extent and severity of the effect of credit variables of mortgage facilities on housing price index in selected metropolises during the years 1389 to 1399, also in the framework of panel data, stepwise regression method has been used. Understanding the factors and variables affecting housing prices can play an important role in economic decisions related to housing and policy in this area. In this research, by using statistical and econometric methods and using panel data model, the factors affecting the cost of housing in Iranian metropolises have been studied with emphasis on credit variables. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of method. According to this model, the variables affecting the price of housing in Iranian metropolises are in order of priority: the amount of housing facilities, the ratio of the value of facilities to the price of housing, credit score of mortgage applicants, average installment repayment, inflation rate and interest rate of all bank facilities. The variables are statistically significant and in line with theoretical foundations. The results show that the most important factor determining the housing price index is the inflation rate with an impact factor of 1.93. The loan-to-housing ratio ratio, the amount of mortgage facilities and the credit score have a reducing effect on the housing price index. In general, the higher the credit score of facility applicants in metropolitan areas, the lower the facility interest rate and inflation rate, the higher the facility amount and the higher the LTV ratio, the lower the housing price index.

Wherever water and water resources have existed since time immemorial; It was the starting point for the gathering of human beings and the formation of settlements on the site. Zanjan province is no exception to this rule, people gathered and settled next to this life-giving substance. therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the role of water resources on the sustainability of villages in Zanjan province and to create criteria for reasonable use of this vital resource to maintain sustainability. this research is of practical type and the method of descriptive-analytical research and the method of data collection is documentary and field. the statistical population of the study is rural settlements of Zanjan province, but at the request of the supervisor of Zanjan region, including cities (Zanjan, Mahneshan, Ijroud, Tarom) were studied, using Cochran's formula, 384 people were selected as a statistical sample. The reliability of the questionnaire was determined using Cronbach's alpha of 0.75. which indicates the desirability of the research tool. research findings show that the greatest impact of water resources in different dimensions of rural sustainability had biodiversity with beta (0.366) and physical with (0.328) and economic dimension with beta (0.267), respectively. Also, all dimensions of stability (economic, social, environmental, physical diversity) with a significance level of 0.000 show that there is a significant, positive and direct relationship between water resources and the sustainability of rural settlements in Zanjan province with 0.99 reliability coefficient. therefore, due to climate change and declining groundwater levels in the study area, proposals such as a fundamental review of policies, serious monitoring of wells, control and prevention of surface water outflow from the region is essential for the development and sustainability rural settlements the province.

The decision to start or develop a new business is influenced significantly by the overt and covert context of the business environment and consequently how individuals and entrepreneurs perceive those plans and contexts. Because a collective understanding of a particular field creates a culture that forms the basis of entrepreneurial activities. In this study, according to the study context and Iranian governmental economy, the effect of good governance on how entrepreneurs perceive and attitude towards economic opportunities with respect to the mediating role of the knowledge-based economy has been investigated. For this purpose, a sample of 366 small and medium business owners in Fars province was extracted using a stratified sampling method. The results indicate that the good governance variable has both a direct (0.414) and an indirect (0.318) effect through the mediation of the knowledge-based economy variable on how to perceive economic opportunities. So, the partial mediating effect of the knowledge-based economy variable in the relationship between good governance and understanding of economic opportunities is confirmed. Therefore, it is expected that by strengthening the factors of good governance, it will be possible to create a suitable platform for the development of a knowledge-based economy and a proper understanding of economic opportunities and, consequently, suitable conditions for the development of small and medium-sized businesses. The results show that investing in establishing the rule of law and controlling corruption, as well as building trust and social cohesion can create a better understanding of the business environment and, of course, the exploitation of economic opportunities among entrepreneurs and SMEs owners in the Fars province. The results, also indicate that good governance as a macro and cognitive sector of social capital has a great impact on improving the understanding of economic opportunities of entrepreneurs SMEs’ owners in Fars province because, in total, the variables of good governance and knowledge-based economy are able to explain 62% of the changes in the variable of perception of economic opportunities.

Accurate prediction of the ecological footprint (EF), an effective indicator for measuring urban sustainable development, enables better protection of life-supporting ecosystems and alleviates discrepancies in area development, resource utilization, and environmental protection. Due to the importance of this indicator to support sustainable development, in this study, EF index was measured for Khuzestan province. EF is calculated for each city residents in the sectors of food, transportation, housing, consumer goods and services, and by agricultural, pasture, forest, sea, energy and buit-up lands; Also, the biodiversity of the cities and the ecological deficit / surplus of the biological productive lands of the cities have been estimated to inform the development sustainability in Khuzestan province. Calculations show that in agricultural land, Haftkele highest and Omidieh lowest, In forest and energy land, Andimeshk highest and Andica lowest, In pasture land, Hendijan highest and Shadegan lowest, In sea land, Hendijan highest and Hoveizeh lowest, In Built-Up land, Haftkel highest and Ahwaz lowest had ecological footprint. Total ecological footprint shows that Hendijan with 3.909 highest and Dezful with 1.144 lowest have ecological footprint. The difference between the ecological footprint of cities, the food factor has had the most impact. Eight cities of Bandar-e-Mahshahr, Abadan, Ahvaz, Khorramshahr, Andika, Shadegan, Gotvand and Omidieh with 75% of the province's population have a 2017356 hectare deficit of land. By compensating for this deficit from the surplus biological capacity of other cities, Khuzestan province needs 913702 hectares of land to meet the demands of its residents. Therefore, it can be concluded that EF of Khuzestan residents is beyond its borders, exploitation of resources is more than their ecological potential, losses and pressure on natural resources is high, there is no self-sufficiency and development of Khuzestan province is unstable.

Stakeholders in the agricultural sector (managers and farm operators) do not understand the products of these interactions due to the wide range of issues related to the "planning", "production" and even "consumer market". Lack of understanding the interactions between social, economic and environmental parameters leads to manifold challenges in the field of cropping production. Price fluctuation is a multifaceted problem attributed by various factors which, when combined, culminate in dangerous consequences for the most farmers .Challenges that have caused crop prices to fluctuate over a period of time, a sharp decline in area under crop, and a long-term decline in farmers' livelihoods. To obviate' this challenge, this study provided a dynamic model for assisting agricultural stakeholders' decisions in the agricultural planning process. The model mentioned in this study, referred to as the "decision-making model", seeks to understand the complexity of the agricultural planning space in the southern region of Sistan and Baluchestan. This model includes a set of dependent factors and drivers in the agricultural plan of the region that aims to understand the feedback of stakeholders' decisions in the agricultural sector and modeling and ultimately simulating their behavior. The DPSIR framework and then VENSIM software were used to evaluate the decision feedback in a decision model. So that first with the help of DPSIR framework the drives affecting on crop program planning of the region are classified and then with the help of VENSIM software modeling and various scenarios are simulated. The results of this study showed that policy makers can provide the conditions for creating good agriculture in the study area by focusing on the components of stress (derived from the DPSIR framework), which are mainly subsistence components. The results of this study in the study area show that many of the components used in crop planning will not lead to improvement or serious damage to the production stability of the study area (onions and tomatoes). In other words, it is possible to help improve and stabilize production in the region by controlling key factors such as reducing the vulnerability of farmers' livelihoods to price fluctuations.

People migrates for various reasons in order to improve Living conditions.Although scholars disagree about the causes of migration, but in general, the reasons for migration can be divided into two groups: economic and non-economic. In other words, it can be said that economic and non-economic attractions cause migration. Although international migration has attracted more attention in academia, it must be kept in mind that the volume of domestic migration is much larger than that of foreign migration. In Iran, after the land reform and the tendency of central planning to industrialize the country, with the shaking of the rural production system and the prosperity of the oil economy in the city, the migration of rural to the city began and so far most research are concentrated on rural migration to city and the problems created in this process and intercity migration have not been studied; Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between the attractiveness of cities and the rate of their immigration in Isfahan province between 2011-2016. For this purpose, the economic and non-economic attraction of the cities in the mentioned years was calculated using the gravity model. Then we created a regression relationship between the logarithm of the rate of migration of cities as a dependent variable and the amount of economic and non-economic attractiveness of cities as independent variables. The model was significant at error level of 5% and the coefficient of determination of model was 0.70, which indicates a good fit of the model. The results show that in Isfahan province in the mentioned years, the most important reason for internal migration is non-economic motivations.

In the last two decades, the concept of social capital has been emphasized due to its relationship with basic social components including awareness, participation, trust, cohesion and social network for sustainable development of communities, especially rural communities. In addition to social capital We are also dealing with physical, economic, human, natural and institutional, which are also interrelated. Therefore, in order to achieve sustainable rural development, having these development investments is essential. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of development capital in the sustainable development of rural settlements and its spatial analysis in Bojnourd. The present research is descriptive-analytical and its type is fundamental in terms of purpose. Documentary and field methods have been used to collect information. The sample population is 22 villages with more than 20 households in Bojnourd city and from a total of 4849 households living in the sample rural areas, with Cochran's formula, the sample size of 298 households was calculated and these individuals were selected by random sampling method. To test the conceptual model of the research and to investigate the effect of development capital on the sustainable development of rural settlements, the partial least squares technique and Smart PLS software were used. According to the results, the coefficients of t between the main variables of the study are more than 2.58, ie the relationship is significant and indirect; Thus, types of development capital have a positive and significant effect on sustainable development of rural settlements and social capital with a coefficient of 0.443 has the most direct impact on sustainable rural development, but in general, economic capital with a coefficient of 0.918 has the highest and natural capital with a coefficient of -0/147 Has the least impact on the sustainable development of rural settlements. And the independent variable predicts 93.1% of the variance of the sustainable rural development variable.

The widespread effects of drought on the social and economic people life are considered as one of the challenges facing human societies. The present study sought to determine and measure the household resilience in the Kavar city in Fars province by means of a capital approach. In this study, the resilience of society in the face of economic, social, environmental, infrastructure, structural and physical damage were investigated. The required data (52 variables in the desired dimensions) have been collected based on exploratory method and questionnaire. The statistical population includes 198 people from the local elite, including villagers, the Islamic Council and local trustees.The samples are living in Kavar city of Fars province, using Cochran method 131 farmers were selected as a statistical sample. The data were analyzed using one-sample t-test as well as regression and correlation coefficient analytic techniques in SPSS21 software. The results of capital prioritization in terms of average scores showed that physical, social, environmental, economic and infrastructure capitals have the highest to lowest priority in the resilience of the region against drought disasters. The economic factor has a greater impact on drought resilience. The social and structural-physical factors have also, however, had a positive impact on the ability of the community to deal with drought, leading to some improvement in resilience. Therefore, the more sources of income, access to land and water and benefit from credits, then the resilience of households against drought and the capacity to adapt to it will be higher. It is also recommended to improve the resilience of the region against drought through improved education, awareness, proper early warning, stronger social relations and diversification of income sources.

The spatial structure of the city has an important effect on economic efficiency and the quality of the urban environment. Inefficient spatial structure, by unnecessarily increasing the distance between people and their place of activity increase the length of the city's infrastructure network maximizes operating costs and intra-city travel. Analysis of the spatial structure of the city is important for a better understanding of urban development and provides the information needed to evaluate the effectiveness of planning plans for general managers and urban planners. The purpose of this research is to analyze the spatial structure of Ahvaz city and identify functional cores. The present research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of descriptive-analytical method. The method of data collection is library and documentary. The data include statistical blocks of 2016 and land use layer of Ahvaz city. Kernel density, spatial autocorrelation test, and central mean were used to identify functional cores. . Hot Spot Analysis and spatial autocorrelation test were used to analyze population distribution and employment. Pearson correlation was used in SPSS software to investigate the relationship between functional cores and population and employment and geographic weight regression was used to model the spatial relationship. The research results show that the distribution of population and employment is clustered. In the central and marginal areas, population density and employment are low, and in the middle areas, the density is high. In terms of the proportion of attractive tourist uses in region one (Bagh Moin, Ci metri, Abdolmajid Bazaar, Sheikh Bagh, Saebin Mandai neighborhoods) have the highest concentration and are the main core of the city and Lashkarabad, Kemplo Jenobi and Zetoon karmandi neighborhoods are sub-cores. Also, the spatial correlation between functional core and population density is relatively low.

Climate change poses a serious threat to climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture. The purpose of this research was conducted to evaluate the accuracy of wheat farmers perceptions of climate change in Mahidasht district of Kermanshah Township. To evaluate the accuracy of farmers’ perceptions, this study also explored the pattern and trend of climate variability in the study area, using historical meteorological data analysis. Research sample including 158 wheat farmers in Mahidasht district of Kermanshah Township, which were selected using two-stage cluster sampling technique. In this research, both secondary data and primary data were utilized. The accuracy of perceived patterns of local climatic changes by wheat farmers was evaluated during the statistical periods of 1970 to 2000 and 2000 to 2018. It was observed that wheat farmers perceptions of the rainfall amount during the autumn, winter and spring were highly accurate, they also accurately perceived summer temperature change, but less accuracy of perception was observed of the temperature changes of the winter. After comparison of the wheat farmers perceptions with the historical data analysis, the individual farmer’s perceptions were categorized into three levels, findings showed that 64.21% of the total sample, were in the group of high perception of climate variability, 28% farmers were in the medium perception group and 7.79% of the total sample, were in the group of low perception. Therefore, the obtained results show the high accuracy of farmers to changes in climatic parameters and climate events in the region. So today, more than ever, there is context to talk more and more about climate change with farmers, and we can hope to create a shared picture of the current and future situation. Therefore, by providing accurate information about the current climate of the region and predicting the trend of these changes in the future, it is possible to increase the adaptation of farmers to climate change.

Since China is becoming the most important economic and military power in the world after America; The purpose of writing this article is to analyze the national security strategies of the United States of America towards China (2001-2021) in order to determine how the United States behaved and will behave with China in these strategies (confrontation or cooperation or both) in response to the hypothesis that "increasing interdependence between countries reduces the possibility of conflict between them." Therefore, cooperation in the economic and commercial fields makes countries benefit more and at the same time realize that the cost of conflict has increased. For this purpose, integrated content analysis research method (quantitative and qualitative) and MAXQDA software have been used. The results showed: In the quantitative part, the highest percentage of words and paragraphs used was about China in 2021, and in the qualitative part of the strategies, it was that since 2001, the United States has encouraged China to cooperate as a committed global player and integration into the world system, but over time, it has turned to the strategy of confronting and containing China and welcoming cooperation at the same time. The competition and cooperation between these two countries, although sometimes accompanied by hostility and tension in various military and political fields, but in connection with economic exchanges, they are incredibly intertwined, in such a way that the amount of exchanges between China and the United States has reached 700 billion dollars per year; Instead of conflict, these two countries have reached comprehensive cooperation.

One of the most important indicators of economic development in a country is regional planning for the construction of infrastructure projects. Public-private partnership (PPP) contracts provide a viable solution for governments to overcome constraints, but due to the complexity, length of time, and high uncertainties of this contractual approach, it carries many risks. Therefore, the main purpose of research is to identify and evaluate the most important risks in PPP projects with a case study in Iranian freeway projects. In the present article, by in-depth study of the research literature and application of the Delphi method, the most important risks of public-private partnership projects were identified then qualitative analysis is performed to determine the significant risks and the risk assessment model is developed using a combination of fuzzy multi-criteria decision making techniques. The results of quantitative risk analysis using FAHP method showed that the first level risks in seven different categories including economic risk and financing, construction, operational, legal, political, other risks and government risks, respectively, have the greatest impact on this type of projects. The results of quantitative risk analysis using FAHP method showed that the first level risks in seven different categories including economic risk and financing, construction, operational, legal, political, other risks and government risks, respectively, have the greatest impact on this type of projects. Also, the results of sub-criteria ranking showed that high financing costs, quality of performance and standards, lack of support infrastructure have the greatest impact on these projects. Finally, the results of FTOPSIS showed that projects A, B and C were more affected by risks, respectively. The findings help with strengthening the capabilities of developing countries for risk management in freeway PPP projects.